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Post by Nathan Milarta on Jul 25, 2013 9:39:58 GMT -5
Something that I've been noticing about the US response to the attack is that the defenders found good results with the efforts they made. For instance, the sinking of the minisub outside the harbor entrance, and the high percentage of the attackers (compared to their overall loss rate) shot down by the few fighters that became airborne.
My question is this: say that the US had figured out what was going on, and when Fuchida's planes arrived over Oahu, they found the Pacific Fleet was not at anchor, and the sky full of P-40s and P-36s. What would have been different?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 10:25:46 GMT -5
Okay, Nathan ...
I am a Military Theorist ... Now, if US Military were able to ready for the attack by the Japanese in World War II - I would say that our losses would been 20-30 percent less and personnel deaths would been significantly less than 2000-2400 reported. It would been 1200-1500 instead.
Now, it would been interesting to see that ... but, in reality US Army and US Navy did not get along at all during prior to World War II and rightly so. The problem of the attack is poor coordination, poor intelligence, and poor logistics that causes the attack to commit.
I think that the Zero would been (a large numbers of them) would shot down most of the P-40's and P-36's ... but it would hamper their success at Pearl. Instead of 12-15 Battleships sunk ... it would been 8-12 Battleships sunk and our casualty rate would been much, much less.
Now, if the Aircraft Carriers would been at Pearl ... the intended targets for the Japanese Army Air Force ... the results would be horrific and the World War II would had lasted another year or two and we would had been fighting until 1946 or early part of 1947. Of which, it would been pretty much a theory on my book. Now, the Aircraft Carriers were at Sea at the time of the attack and thank goodness that they were.
I would say it is a comedy of errors on a part of Military Intelligence at the time of the attack and I just think if we had better leadership from the top and better inter-department communications the attack could had been avoided in the first place. However, the attack took place and I feel that communication between services was lacking cohesiveness and therefore attack went on as planned by Admiral Yamanto and Fuchida's planes would had suffered some significant losses (potentially 15-25 percent) and therefore it would been marginally different. Remember, Army Brass did not get along with Navy Brass at all. US Navy should been the top dog in the Pacific and MacArthur should never been Supreme Commander at all ... it should been Nimitz instead.
The War in the Pacific is a US Navy and Marine Corps War ... not US Army because of Logistics.
I often wonder about this and this is a good question Nathan, and believe me it could go either way ... but if US were ready in the first place - I would say our losses would been 20-30 percent or more less. I will try to share more later on ...
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Post by Nathan Milarta on Jul 25, 2013 10:35:42 GMT -5
Many of the USAAF pilots on Hawaii were high timed pilots though. Some had hundreds of hours in P-36/P-40 aircraft. (The pilots in the Philippines were another story. Most of them were fresh from flight school with very little to no training in P-40. Yet some of the experienced P-40B pilots were put in P-40E's and visa versa with people trained to fly the P40E were put up flying old P-35's)!
The pilots that did get air borne on December 7th did have some surprising success despite the situation. It helped that they were high timed pilots! Otherwise the claims would have been much less. Had more been up before the attack I could see nothing but complete destruction of Japanese aircraft. If the Japanese had made that 3rd wave they would have ran into a much stronger and ready air defense.
-Nate
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 10:47:37 GMT -5
Good points ... Nate.I would say that the Japanese Army Air Corps would had face significant losses if they had done a 3rd Wave and the War from the Pacific would been significantly shorter by half of year or so. 
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Post by The Inspector on Jul 25, 2013 10:53:46 GMT -5
Anyone read 'At Dawn We Slept' by Gordon W. Prange? It was the first book to take a deep and serious look into the thinking behind the lead up to Pearl Harbor and the very strong possibility that Roosevelt and others knew and hoped their provocations of Japan would lead to war which would provide an end to the lingering effects of the great Depression by forcing the American industrial machine to start churning again.
When it was discovered several years ago that the U.S.S. Ward had sunk the mini sub prior to the attack I pounded the table in their final vindication.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 11:49:12 GMT -5
Anyone read 'At Dawn We Slept' by Gordon W. Prange? It was the first book to take a deep and serious look into the thinking behind the lead up to Pearl Harbor and the very strong possibility that Roosevelt and others knew and hoped their provocations of Japan would lead to war which would provide an end to the lingering effects of the great Depression by forcing the American industrial machine to start churning again. When it was discovered several years ago that the U.S.S. Ward had sunk the mini sub prior to the attack I pounded the table in their final vindication. Thanks Inspector! I have wanting to get that book and never did ... thanks for the timely update! |
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Post by fightnjoe on Jul 25, 2013 16:40:33 GMT -5
it is an interesting question. i do have to say that all speculation would have to depend on the reaction of the individuals. if the naval officers had put to sea or put to the alternative harbor then quite honestly the damage inflicted and total loss of naval personal and equipment could have been much higher for the us, the losses to the army/navy/marine aircraft may not have been as high. depending on how early the warning had been raised. most of what i have read and most of the accounts i have heard put the ready time for us aircraft at 2 to 4 hours per aircraft. if the warning had come hours earlier then the us would have inflicted more of a bloody nose to the attacking force. if the warning had come earlier then the recon forces for the us would have been in more of a position to pinpoint the direction and would have been able to counter the attacking force and possibly mount an attack on the japanese strike force. however if that warning was just minutes then more would have been caught in the open or moving from civilian/military housing areas to the military bases and more casualties would have been taken.
joe
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Post by surfinbattchief on Jul 25, 2013 17:37:57 GMT -5
Very thought provoking. great discussion. I'm with Nate and believe that we could have made a change in the outcome with large numbers of American fliers in the air. I'm also with the Inspector on the Roosevelt theory...just in speculation as the war machine brought great strength back to the nation along with an incredible sense of national spirit and pride.  |
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Post by fightnjoe on Jul 25, 2013 17:59:21 GMT -5
Anyone read 'At Dawn We Slept' by Gordon W. Prange? It was the first book to take a deep and serious look into the thinking behind the lead up to Pearl Harbor and the very strong possibility that Roosevelt and others knew and hoped their provocations of Japan would lead to war which would provide an end to the lingering effects of the great Depression by forcing the American industrial machine to start churning again. this brings a couple of questions to mind. wasnt roosevelt a navy man? would he have intentionally or unintentionally sacrificed his navy for any reason? also wasnt he looking toward provoking the germans by using us ships for lend lease convoy duty? all that i have read points towards the desire to get into the war yes but to do so in europe. i have read "at dawn we slept" and found it to be a very indepth book with a great deal of information. but i have also read much about possible knowledge of the attack, my current opinion is that churchill possibly knew but said nothing. joe |
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Post by The Inspector on Jul 25, 2013 21:00:03 GMT -5
Equipment wise, the Navy had better, more modern fighter aircraft than the Army did in Hawaii. The Army had several early P-40's but lot's of P-36's, P-43's, and obsolescent bombers, B-12's, B-18's. I always wondered why the submarine docks and yard were passed over by the Japanese and they were pretty much the tip of the spear for quite a while. Most of the Battleships, while current equipment on avreage were thirty or more years old and built to re fight WW1, were kept out of action for in some cases, years making room for newer, bigger, faster, better equippeed replacements. Old Destroyers replaced by newer classes of tin cans.
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Post by surfinbattchief on Jul 26, 2013 11:11:59 GMT -5
Inspector, I looked at the pics and it didn't dawn on me about the subs until you brought them up. Great question because they weren't touched.....Hey Joe, I just tried to check out the pearl harbor sig you have in your post. It would reply so I typed in pearl harbor sig and up came a sig from photobucket. Did you make that?
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Post by Nathan Milarta on Jul 26, 2013 11:35:14 GMT -5
The third wave was to knock out oil field and dry docks. Never happened. It wasn't all a decision based on Nagumo's personality. He was thinking of logistics. Had the U.S. carriers been in the harbor he may very well have launched that third strike. Also there was a limited amount of fuel for the Naval fleet and it would have caused delays to stop for refueling. Although it was a big mistake.
Does anyone know what Adm. Yamamoto thought about Nagumo's decision on aborting third wave?
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Post by Nathan Milarta on Jul 26, 2013 11:35:23 GMT -5
The third wave was to knock out oil field and dry docks. Never happened. It wasn't all a decision based on Nagumo's personality. He was thinking of logistics. Had the U.S. carriers been in the harbor he may very well have launched that third strike. Also there was a limited amount of fuel for the Naval fleet and it would have caused delays to stop for refueling. Although it was a big mistake.
Does anyone know what Adm. Yamamoto thought about Nagumo's decision on aborting third wave?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 13:06:26 GMT -5
The third wave was to knock out oil field and dry docks. Never happened. It wasn't all a decision based on Nagumo's personality. He was thinking of logistics. Had the U.S. carriers been in the harbor he may very well have launched that third strike. Also there was a limited amount of fuel for the Naval fleet and it would have caused delays to stop for refueling. Although it was a big mistake. Does anyone know what Adm. Yamamoto thought about Nagumo's decision on aborting third wave? Nathan, Yamamoto did not criticize Nagumo's decision on aborting the third wave; the problem is two-fold. First - there wasn't enough fuel to gander a third wave and our Navy/Army Air Corps would be ready for them. Second - The target for the third wave but he was later criticized for his failure to launch a third attack, which might have destroyed the fuel oil storage and repair facilities which would have rendered the most important American naval base in the Pacific useless, and the submarine base and intelligence station which were the main factors in Japan's defeat. This was urge upon by both Genda and Fuchida to launch the 3rd wave and they both feel that they can succeed in destroying the fuel oil storage and repair facilities at Pearl. They were stunned by Nagumo's decision not to. However, the problem with this - the third wave is that there wasn't enough sunlight to warrants it. Because of the fuel, the attack itself, and the lack of overall confidence. This is best that I can come up with. |
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Post by fightnjoe on Jul 26, 2013 20:07:57 GMT -5
Inspector, I looked at the pics and it didn't dawn on me about the subs until you brought them up. Great question because they weren't touched.....Hey Joe, I just tried to check out the pearl harbor sig you have in your post. It would reply so I typed in pearl harbor sig and up came a sig from photobucket. Did you make that? about sig from photobucket, it depends on which it was. about the pearl harbor sig the link should work now. been playing with a couple of web builder sites. joe |
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